Let me put this another way.
It wasn't long ago that I used to say.."who in their right mind is going to spend $20,000 for a stupid car" Of course now that figure (in the Lexus, Mercedes and Infiniti falvors) tops $40K and of all things...pick up trucks for $45-50K. "Why that's what a guy pays for a good house".
The bottom line is while we THINK there is not a lot of folks who will pay $110K for an airplane, I would argue that there is a whole batch of so called middle class folks that would.
Another shocker to me was people with my same job and pay scale buying $700k and above homes in Portland (Oregon for your Nor'easters) and whle at the same owning a Lexus and new Dodge pickup. Same folks usually have a hobby (insert $100K boat, 3 or 4 horses, or a $200K cabin) and they think that all of this is normal.
The Cessna name on an LSA will create opportunities for liberal financing packages and suddenly "for the price of a car payment, you too can own and fly your own airplane"
And these people want technology (so we can put that to rest). The only things I see creating or destroying demand will be
1) markeing...i.e. getting the word out: Right now aviation is still viewed with some sort of "cult" like appeal. Kind of like boats and motorhomes were 30 or so years ago. With the right packaging "it will fly". and
2) Financial Markets: As folks see "perceived" retirement investments shrink in their home equities and stock portfolio, they may get "religion". That religion is the one that I am trying to practice of carrying no debt load on "non-essentials".
If you look at this from a 20 or 30 something yuppies rose colored contact lenses, look around at your own neighborhoods (Bill, I looked at Grants Pass real estate recently and I can't afford to live there), you will see folks who are very willing to have $1000 EXTRA income tied up PER MONTH in toys and too much house. If they ever get to where they perceive that flying is for the common man (and woman). Katie bar the doors.
HOWEVER>>>>>>I do not believe that this will drive up the value of our old birds, until some sort of "classic" movement starts. Remember...it wasn't that many years ago that you could buy a 69 Camero for under $5K. These people will look at their Skycatcher (sorry, sounds like flycatcher to me) as a depreciable asset and expect to move up to the Lexus from the Toyota at some point which is where the Cirrus and such markets will do well...or the NexGen Cessna.
Our birds will likely be relegated to us "codgers" and those who are young now, but discovered "cheap" flying early on. Beyond that, they will become the Ford Mustang II's of the airplane community unless a way to revive them is found...OR...the financial considerations crush the LSA market in general. Then people will again be looking for cheap flying.
Okay...that is my prediction.
Jeff "Jean Dixon" Davis
